PSAT and National Merit

Class of 2027 National Merit Cutoffs Are Out: Every State Dropped

National Merit Semifinalists for the class of 2027 were announced on September 9, and every state’s cutoff went down. Here is what changed, why analysts think it happened, and what this fall’s juniors should aim for on the PSAT.

Every state’s cutoff went down

National Merit Semifinalists are chosen state by state. Each state gets a share of the roughly 16,000 Semifinalist spots based on its share of the nation’s graduating seniors, and the cutoff is the Selection Index score that fills that share. That is why a score that qualifies in one state can fall short in another.

For the class of 2027, the highest cutoff is 223, shared by New Jersey, Washington, DC and US students studying abroad. The lowest is 208, in Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming. Alaska fell the furthest, by 7 points. Here is how the Northeast and the largest states compare:

Selection Index = (2 × Reading and Writing + Math) ÷ 10, using PSAT section scores. The maximum is 228. Every state, plus four years of history, is in our full National Merit cutoffs table.

Why the cutoffs fell

The short answer is the October 2025 PSAT itself, not a weaker group of students. Compass Education Group, which tracks National Merit cutoffs closely, found that the number of high Reading and Writing scores dropped by about 27% compared with the year before. It concluded that the scale for that section was harsher, cutting the typical Selection Index by about 3 points.

The year before had gone the other way. The class of 2026 set record highs, with New Jersey, Massachusetts and DC all at 225, after an unusual surge in top Reading and Writing scores. Two big swings in a row are the clearest sign that cutoffs are hard to predict from one year to the next.

What it means for the class of 2028

Juniors take the PSAT/NMSQT this fall, during a school testing window of October 1 to 30, 2026, and will learn whether they qualified in September 2027. The drop this year does not mean next year’s cutoffs will stay low. A safer target is the highest cutoff your state has posted in the last few years, shown in the last column of the table above. In Connecticut and New York that is 223. In New Jersey and Massachusetts it is 225.

With only weeks until the test, the biggest gains usually come from:

• Taking a full, timed practice PSAT in Bluebook, the College Board’s testing app, to see where the points are.
• Doubling up on Reading and Writing, since it counts twice in the Selection Index. A 10 point Reading and Writing gain moves the index by 2, while a 10 point Math gain moves it by 1.
• Drilling the adaptive format, because a strong first module unlocks the harder second module, which is where top scores come from.

What happens next for this year’s Semifinalists

According to the National Merit Scholarship Corporation, about 95% of Semifinalists become Finalists. To advance, a student needs a strong academic record, a school endorsement, an essay, and SAT or ACT scores that confirm the PSAT result. Finalists are notified in February 2027. About half of them will win one of roughly 6,700 scholarships worth about $24 million, announced in several rounds from April through July.

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